Risk is behind the most popular spandex flashiness

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Spandex: behind the flashiness is the risk

"58000 yuan/ton, 80000 yuan/ton", "65000 yuan/ton, 88000 yuan/ton", "75000 yuan/ton, 100000 yuan/ton"... With the refreshing speed of 20d and 40d spandex prices increasing, the whole spandex industry chain seems to usher in a long lost prosperous time again. This time, in just one week, 20d and 40d products increased by about 15000 yuan/ton, which further inspired the confidence of the industry

entering the traditional peak season of textile production and sales, coupled with the approaching Christmas sales season, the textile manufacturing industry still maintains a certain demand under the high pressure of cotton yarn, polyester and other raw materials; Affected by the power rationing policy in July and August, the inventory of enterprises in Zhejiang, China's Spandex industrial base, remained low; The general low inventory status of the upstream and downstream has always kept the spandex industry stable, which has laid a demand support for the price rise to a certain extent

the prices of polyurethane raw materials PTMEG and pure MDI rose in November. Although PTMEG, which accounts for about 80% of the cost, only increased by about 1000 yuan per ton, and pure MDI, which accounts for less than 20% of the cost, only increased by about 2000 yuan per ton, this on the contrary provided psychological support and reasonable reasons for the expansion of spandex production enterprises

the doubling of the price of raw cotton, the increase of polyester, nylon, etc. by more than half, and the inflation expectation is getting stronger and stronger, which makes the spandex suppliers and weavers have the mentality of pulling up and adjusting

the output of spandex is stable, but the inventory of manufacturers is mostly low; Although downstream enterprises mainly purchase goods on demand, most of the early inventory has been digested to the end, and there is an expectation of increased purchase; The price of cotton yarn, polyester, nylon and viscose fiber, which are also textile raw materials, has increased by more than half or even doubled, while the price of spandex has increased by only 14.6% from the beginning of the year to the end of October. There is huge room for operation of the price, which begins to attract some hype funds cruising in cotton yarn, polyester and other industries

however, with the passage of time, this continuous adjustment of supplier prices did not last long. Due to the increasing resistance of the downstream weaving industry to the high price supply, the slowdown of procurement operations, especially the individual high price brands began to move closer to the central market, which soon weakened the overall trading atmosphere of spandex, and some bearish voices also began to appear

although the market demand for spandex has increased to a certain extent, it is suppressed by cotton yarn, polyester, etc., and the total amount of orders in place is not satisfactory, even lower than the same period in previous years. Stimulated by the sharp rise in the price of spandex at the beginning of November, most downstream enterprises have replenished their positions and prepared goods to varying degrees. Approaching the end of the regular production and marketing season of textiles, the order negotiation work began to be gradually reduced, which greatly reduced the possibility of short-term demand following up again

at present, although the tension in the total supply of spandex market continues, and most manufacturers also maintain low load inventory, the intervention of hot money, especially the bulk stockpiling of goods, has buried huge hidden dangers for the entire supply side. While the market demand has slowed down, the operating load of spandex production enterprises has not decreased, and products are still flowing into the market

the price of spandex has risen sharply, which has wiped out the high-level support of raw materials previously formed. Under the situation of stronger inflation expectations, the sharp rise of cotton yarn and polyester has significantly increased the attention of relevant national departments, and there are control expectations, which directly leads to the cautious attitude of the industrial chain, and the wait-and-see will effectively reduce the generation of burrs and burrs

according to comprehensive analysis, spandex production enterprises can support this market in the short term by relying on the current low total inventory. During this period, if hot money is further increased, the price of spandex may further rise. However, the subsequent slowdown in demand and the weakening of raw materials and production support factors have also made it increasingly difficult to operate spandex. The cash out behavior of hot money and the preferential operation of some spandex factories to expand the sales field in advance have significantly increased the operational risk of the spandex industry in the later stage

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